Race to the Championship

[Boston Celtics]

Race to the Championship


^{1. Dallas Mavericks - Verdict: Very Good}
(34W - 11L | .756 | 5 Games remaining)

The dark Maverick horse has risen it's head over the past 2 weeks, just at the right time of the season, and Dallas now look like the favorites to win the Race to the Championship. Let's see how their chances break-down:

• Worst-case scenario:
  • If Dallas lose all of their remaining 5 games, finishing 34-16, then the Denver Nuggets still have a chance of winning the Race if all the other contenders lose too, which is highly unlikely, and the Nugs win their last 3. The next closest competitor, Boston, would have to win 4 of their last 7 games.
• To win the Race to the Championship:
  • Dallas must win 4 of their last 5 remaining games, finishing atleast 38-17, to secure the championship. If they win 3 of their last 5 games and finish 37-18 then Boston has a chance to tie their record if they can win all of their remaining 7 games.

So, it seems, the title is now Dallas' to lose! Let's take a look at their remaining schedule:

April 5th: (17th) Utah Jazz
April 6th: (7th) Orlando Magic
April 11th: (5th) Denver Nuggets
April 17th: (18th) Golden State Warriors
April 28th: (13th) Portland Trailblazers

A comparitively comfy schedule awaits the Mavs, lucky enough to meet two bottom-feeders in their final month, but nothing should be taken for granted by Dallas who must not underrate their opponents if they are to prevail. The way Nowitzki, Kirilenko and Kidd (the White boy trio!) have been playing in the late half of the season, it doesn't seem like these championship hungry veterans are taking anything for granted.
The Race to the Championship could be decided as early as April 11th, when the trophy hopeful Nuggets come to town, if the other contenders slip up!



^{2. Boston Celtics - Verdict: Reasonable}
(30W - 13L | .698 | 7 Games remaining)

Boston has led the league for the longest accumulated time this season, rarely being knocked any further down than 3rd, but a hideously timed string of three losses in a row leave the post-Ray Allen Celtics looking highly vulnerable. Someone other than KG is going to have to step-up offensively for once if they look to win the league:

• Worst-case scenario:
  • If the Celtics continue their losing ways, and Ginobili cannot adapt to the new system, they only have to lose 4 of their 7 remaining games to pretty much gift the Gold to Dallas. The Mavs would have to then lose 4 of their 5 games and the Lakers or Pistons would have to win all of theirs for there to be a change at the top.
  
  
• To win the Championship:
  • Boston must win 4 of their last 7 games atleast to go even with the Mavs, but realistically will have to win all 7. The horrors of March must be learned from if this is going to happen but the Celtics have the rare bonus of being the team with the most remaining games - they're not waiting for anyone else to slip up, they've gotta get the job done themselves!

Remaining schedule:

April 6th: (13th) Portland Trailblazers
April 11th: (9th) Philadelphia 76ers
April 17th: (15th) Houston Rockets
April 18th: (10th) Cleveland Cavaliers
April 23rd and 24th: (7th) Orlando Magic x2
April 30th: (6th) Washington Wizards



^{3. Detroit Pistons - Verdict: Slight Possibility.}
(32W - 15L | .681 | 3 Games remaining)

The Pistons have played well of late and capitalised on recent poor form from everyone except Dallas. Detroit's been quietly lingering in the top half of the league all season but chose the month of March to step up a gear and still have a chance to win it all or atleast contend for a medal position!

• Worst-case scenario:
  • Losing just 1 of their last three games will mean Dallas must lose all of their remaining games just to draw even with the Pistons, but by winning their remaining three games, which are all against winnable opposition, the Pistons are still in with a chance. Unlike the Lakers, injuries have steered clear of the Pistons and Detroit will be looking to lock-up atleast a medal this season.
• To win the Championship:
  • Realistically Detroit must win all three of their remaining games, and that is definitely a possibility, with their strong and established core of veterans and the surprisingly high performance of Antonio McDyess recently (a big factor for the Jazz's D5 championship run last season too), there's not a fan in Detroit who doesn't atleast look optimistic.

Remaining schedule:
April 10th: (15th) Houston Rockets
April 14th: (10th) Cleveland Cavaliers
April 27th: (16th) Toronto Raptors



^{4. Los Angeles Lakers - Verdict: Slight Possibility.}
(32W - 15L | .681 | 3 Games remaining)

The Lakers were beaten today by a team whose season has been derailed by injuries; the San Antonio Spurs. Ironically, now, in the push to the end, it is the Lakers who lost due to injury to one of their forwards (where LA aren't exactly deep), Trevor Ariza, and the Spurs who are getting healthy and look to avoid relegation.

• Worst-case scenario:
  • Like Detroit, if the Lakers lose a single game then the best they can do is hope for Dallas and Boston to lose all of their games and break even in the end - forcing, I suppose, a playoff finish to the season.
• To win the Championship:
  • Though there's no statistical difference between Detroit and LA there's a significant difference in the attitude of their fans this week. Detroit's been pushing their way up the charts whilst the Lakers, who sat high and mighty for most of the season, are potentially blundering what was once a great opportunity for the big-3 of Yao, Kobe and Parker and the fans aren't happy. Los Angeles will need it's minions in tow to make the final push.

Remaining schedule:
April 13th: (13th) Portland Trailblazers
April 24th: (6th) Washington Wizards
April 29th: (15th) Houston Rockets



^{5. Denver Nuggets - Verdict: Outside Chance.}
(31W - 16L | .660 | 3 Games remaining)

I'm pretty sure most of us expected the Nuggets to be battling until the very end for contention and, technically, they're still doing that, but to be realistic Denver should now be looking to secure a medal position for posterity rather than be praying for the others to start tanking when there's Gold on the line.

• Worst-case scenario:
  • Here we are, there's not much less of a chance of winning the league. If the Nuggs lose all their remaining 3 games though they can be comforted knowing that, statistically, there's no possibility of falling any further than 5th place, even if the Wizards in 6th win all of their remaining five games!
• To win the Championship:
  • As has been said, the Nuggets must win all of their remaining games to stand a chance of drawing even with the others and force a playoff scenario. The chance of a Silver or Bronze, however, is still eminently possible and would be deserving of a Nuggets team that has exceeded most expectations this season. To secure a Bronze, for instance, Denver just need to win one more than Detroit and Los Angeles in the final weeks and days. A respectable end to a respectable season. The relishing prospect of their epic meeting with the Mavericks on the 11th of April could conjure some late season heroism from Denver!

Remaining schedule:
April 9th: (8th) Phoenix Suns
April 11th: (1st) Dallas Mavericks
April 24th: (11th) New Orleans Hornets

[Denver Nuggets]

That's me! Mr. Pessimistic himself. ;D

[Dallas Mavericks]

Very in-depth writeup BOS!

Knowing my luck though, my team will probably choke and lose the title.

[Denver Nuggets]

Don't doubt yourself like that. You don't have Duncan to lose before the playoffs anymore. And there are no playoffs!

[Boston Celtics]

35 rps

[Detroit Pistons]

I doubt I'll win all 3 of my next games with Billups being injured but it's a possibility.